The biggest reality show ends!

Well, the biggest reality show of democratic India had ended, Indians have cast their vote, and we will soon have the results. However, my hunch is that a bigger show awaits us post May 16, promos of which are already being aired, barely a day after polling was over. Mr. Kumaraswamy - We didn’t see you getting out of Sonia Gandhi’s residence and we know that your loyalties lie only with the third front!

Let’s talk about someone everybody loves, He is our man from South – S. Ramadoss. His last concern is who forms the government at the centre. Untouchability was long abolished in India, and he is one of the very few who practices it in true spirit. All he needs is his pound of flesh coupled with some media attention. Both the UPA and NDA can safely assume that he will support them if they are in a position to form the government. I guess he is popular in the Investment banking circles as the “deal maker”. On that note, I recently happened to read some reports on elections 2009 published by the big boys on Dalal Street, almost all of them opined that the UPA has a clear advantage over the NDA. The bookies in India are echoing the same view with the UPA being seen as the clear favorite in the betting circles. Here, I must tell you something I read about bookies - “Bookies only make money when the favorite loses”. So, what would a bookie prefer? To get it right, or to get rich? Dumb question!

The show spoilers have been the ladies. They have been mum until now, although I am still hopeful that we will see some fireworks from them post May 16. Both Didi (aka UP ki bhenji) and Amma have kept everyone guessing. Maumta however, decided to join Congress. Talking about Maumta, I really feel sorry for her, she isn’t a part of the NDA, and if the UPA comes to power, she will obviously have to make way for Mr. Karat and his men to come in, after all whom would Congress prefer, Maumta with 15 seats or Left with 35 seats? Dumb question again! Am sure she didn’t need classes in Game Theory to recognize something so obvious.

Talking about Game theory, The BJP realizes that the many regional parties are entangled in a zero-sum game in their states. The Left and Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Mulayam, and Rajashekhar Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu cant co-exist. MJ Akbar describes this situation beautifully, He says, “The Congress led UPA government in 2004 was formed by straight arithmetic. The one in 2009 will need algebra”. And at that, Rahul baba showed us all that he is a quick learner. He was at his promiscuous best while reaching out to Nitish Kumar and our techie down south (read Naidu). So much so, that he almost awarded them certificates for their performance in their respective states. Poor Lalu and Paswan find themselves in a no-man’s land now, I think their plight has more to do with their deeds than destiny!

Recently in an election rally, Modi made a hilarious remark about Karunanidhi, He says, "Karunanidhi's fast-unto-death must be the only one of its kind in the world. It lasted for just four hours. It started after he had his breakfast and ended before lunch"(sic), Listening to this, I think even Gabbar would have laughed. I certainly did. On a different note, Congress recently dropped its “Jai ho” campaign, wonder what triggered that! However, rumors are now rife that the party is coming out with a Tamil version titled, “Jaya Ho”, Amma will certainly love this one, not too sure if that would be enough to cajole her into joining the UPA though.

Finally, moving to the larger question, Kaun banega PM? Since we don’t know the results yet, everyone (from Pawar to Paswan) has the right to dream till 8 am on 16 May and throw their hat in the ring. Even Jaspal Bhatti has exercised this right and looking at the other contenders in the fray, don’t think he has gone too overboard. As for me, I would maintain what I said earlier - Opinion polls may get it wrong, again!

General Elections - Opinion polls may get it wrong……..again!

In 2004 you had to be audacious to say that the Congress will come to power because anyone who even whispered this view ran the risk of being labeled as a political neophyte! Come 2009, things haven’t changed much, except for the fact that BJP is the one which finds itself in the corner this time around. As far as our media is concerned, the verdict is out, the Saffron brigade is not coming to power. The more intriguing question then is, who is ? Everybody from UPA to the N+1th front. As I write, news is out that Cheeranjivi is contemplating his own front, however he will have to do some homework before he attributes a number to it.

Come May16, 2009 and many of our revered political experts who are usually seen gassing on the idiot box and claim to have understood the “pulse” of the India voter may be found running for cover, just as they did five years ago when they did not even contemplate the possibility of Congress coming to power. Today, we find ourselves in a similar situation where nobody is giving the BJP even an outside chance of coming to power. However, I think the tide is now slowly swinging in favor of the BJP. I say this despite the fact that the BJP has been shown the door in Orissa by the suave Patnaik babu, in a manner which wasn’t so suave. Nitish Kumar is sitting on the fence, waiting for the drama to unfold, He will surely ask for his pound of flesh post polls. Our techie down south, (read Babu) has taken a U turn after his new found conscious wished to be Secular. Amidst all this chaos, BJP found its latest Hindutva hero in Varun Gandhi. He spills out more venom than the Black Mamba, reportedly the most venomous snake in the world. His speeches (coupled with the unwarranted media attention) may have done enough to disturb the secular fabric of this nation (again!).

In my view, what has tilted the tide in favor of the BJP, is really not about their own ingenuity, but has more to do with the fragmented focus of the Congress coupled with the preposterous ambitions of some old horses (read Pawar and Paswan) and some new ones too. In 2004 congress fought the election with a single point agenda to defeat the BJP, today they also have to worry about increasing their own landscape. The fallout of this dilemma is for all of us to see, Congress will now have to lock horns against its own ally in Bihar and there are no prizes for guessing who will benefit from this. In West Bengal, Congress has agreed to a humiliating seat sharing arrangement with “Maumta” so as to impinge maximum damage to the Left. The Jharkhand pact with the JMM has also fallen apart. Behenji couldn’t have been happier when she learnt that she will not have to fight the combined might of Mulayam-Congress in Uttar Pradesh. Down South, the Congress with have to face anti incumbency in Andhra Pradesh, where the competition has become extremely fierce after the emergence of PRJ. In Tamil Nadu the DMK is not expected to live upto its performance in the previous polls. In sum, worries in galore for the Congress and joy in abundance for BJP.

The final verdict will be out only on the 16th of May, but there will be no clear winners (or losers). The fence sitters (read Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Jayalalitha, Chandrababu and Naveen Patnaik) will decide who returns to power. However, If the BJP significantly benefits from the Varun fiasco to emerge as the single largest party it may well turn out to be the case of “Operation successful, patient dead”.